As the dust settles on the latest announcement from the Bank of England (BoE), many are left wondering: When will UK interest rates fall again? After months of economic juggling, the BoE has decided to hold interest rates at 5%. It’s a cautious move, but a rate cut might be on the horizon later this year. If you’re like most people juggling mortgages, loans, and credit cards, this is the financial equivalent of asking, “Are we there yet?” Spoiler: Not quite, but let’s break down what’s going on and when you might feel a little relief.
What Are Interest Rates and Why Do They Change?
Interest rates are basically the cost of borrowing money—or the reward for saving it. In the UK, the BoE’s base rate dictates what other banks charge their customers for loans, mortgages, and even what you’ll earn on your savings. When inflation—how much prices rise over time—gets out of hand, the BoE steps in. If inflation is too high, the BoE raises interest rates to encourage people to spend less. Less spending means less demand, which helps slow down price increases. On the flip side, when the economy needs a little boost, they cut rates to encourage borrowing and spending.
Right now, inflation is slowing, but not quickly enough for the BoE to start slashing rates immediately.
What’s Going on With Inflation?
The UK’s inflation peaked at a whopping 11.1% in October 2022. Let that sink in—prices were skyrocketing. But now, inflation is back down to a more manageable level, hovering around 2.2% as of July and August 2024. So why are rates still so high?
The BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, put it bluntly: inflation may be cooling, but they don’t want to risk lowering rates too fast and then having to hike them back up. It’s a balancing act. While some areas of the economy, like services (think restaurants and hair salons), are still seeing price increases, inflation overall is falling. This means rate cuts are coming—just not too fast.
When Will UK Interest Rates Drop?
The magic question. While economists and analysts didn’t expect rates to fall in August, many are looking towards November as a more realistic timeline for a rate cut. Currently, the base rate stands at 5%, down from the previous 5.25%.
But remember, we’re not out of the woods yet. The BoE is tiptoeing through the economic minefield, ensuring inflation stays low without tanking the economy. And here’s the kicker: even if rates start to fall, it’s not going to happen overnight. Most predictions suggest rates won’t return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.
For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that UK rates could settle at around 3.5% by the end of 2025. That’s still higher than what many homeowners were used to a few years ago, but at least it’s heading in the right direction.
How Do Interest Rates Affect You?
Mortgages: The Big Headache
If you own a home or are thinking about buying one, you’ve probably been feeling the pinch. Just under a third of households have a mortgage, and around 1.6 million of those deals will expire in 2024. Yikes. While some have mortgages that track the BoE’s rate (meaning your monthly payments fluctuate with every rate change), the vast majority are on fixed-rate deals. But even those fixed-rate mortgages aren’t immune. When it’s time to remortgage, expect to face much higher rates than you did a few years ago.
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate now sits at 5.47%. That’s a steep jump from the dirt-cheap deals we saw in the early 2020s, where rates hovered closer to 2%. Mortgage lenders have been competing for your business, so there are some lower rates available, but don’t expect to land a rate like your neighbor did in 2019.
If you want to know how a rate change might impact your monthly payment, use a mortgage calculator. But keep in mind, those numbers are estimates. You’ll still need to talk to a lender to get the real deal.
Credit Cards and Loans
It’s not just homeowners feeling the heat. Interest rates also impact credit cards, car loans, and personal loans. When the BoE’s rate goes up, expect your bank to follow suit. Rates on new loans might be higher, and your credit card APR might start creeping up too. On the flip side, when rates drop, borrowing costs should go down, at least in theory. Lenders don’t always pass on the savings as quickly as they hike up the costs.
Savings: The Short End of the Stick?
Here’s where things get a bit more frustrating. Yes, higher interest rates should, in theory, mean better returns on your savings. But banks and building societies have been dragging their feet on raising savings rates. The UK’s financial watchdog has even stepped in, warning banks that if they don’t raise rates for savers, they’ll face “robust action.” We’ll see if that shakes things up, but for now, savers might feel like they’re getting the short end of the stick.
What About Interest Rates in Other Countries?
The UK isn’t the only country playing the interest rate game. Across the G7—the group of the world’s largest advanced economies—the UK has had one of the highest interest rates. But other countries are starting to cut theirs, giving a glimpse of what might be on the horizon for the UK.
For example, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently cut its main interest rate to 3.5% after holding it at an all-time high of 4%. Over in the US, the Federal Reserve also made a move, dropping its key lending rate to between 4.75% and 5%. Both central banks signaled that more cuts could come by the end of 2024.
So, When Will Rates Actually Fall?
In short: soon, but don’t hold your breath. Rates could fall as early as November, but the process will be slow and measured. You might not feel the impact immediately, but the trend is heading in the right direction. And if you’re looking for some financial breathing room, keep an eye on the BoE’s announcements in the coming months. It’s going to be a delicate dance, and no one wants to see rates rise again after a premature cut.
Staying on top of interest rates can be a headache, but knowing what’s coming can help you prepare. If you’re a homeowner, considering a loan, or just want to optimize your savings, now’s the time to review your options. Talk to a financial advisor, keep an eye on rate changes, and make informed decisions. The future might hold a rate drop, but it’s up to you to make the most of it when it comes.