Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed mastery of deal-making has been a cornerstone of his political brand. Now, as he prepares to step into the White House once again, he’s promising to wield his negotiation skills to end the war in Ukraine. But critics warn that this supposed peace deal might look less like a resolution and more like capitulation to Vladimir Putin.
Can Trump Actually Broker Peace?
Trump’s vow to end the Ukraine war within a day of taking office raises eyebrows. Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme, believes Trump might be able to engineer something he could label as a “deal.” But, as Giles told HuffPost UK, “Is it going to be something that is durable, sustainable, and actually ensures fighting comes to an end on a more or less permanent basis? Almost certainly not.”
For Trump, the goal would be delivering on his campaign promise to halt the conflict—even temporarily. For Putin, the motivation would likely involve consolidating gains and weakening Ukraine further. Giles warns that Putin has demonstrated an uncanny ability to manipulate Trump, as seen during the latter’s first term.
“Putin may agree to pause the war,” Giles added, “not to end it, but to buy time to rebuild his forces while keeping control of occupied territories.”
Why Would Putin Play Along?
Putin’s ambitions for Ukraine are clear: full control. Yet, after nearly three years of war, his military is stretched thin. Freezing the conflict could offer him a much-needed reprieve to regroup. Giles noted that a ceasefire might also provide Putin with diplomatic leverage, especially if it helps Trump appear successful on the global stage.
Steve Forbes, of Forbes Media, likened such a deal to the infamous Munich Agreement of 1938, when Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler only delayed further aggression. “Like Hitler, Putin won’t be appeased,” Forbes said. “That’s why he must be thwarted.”
The Ukraine Factor: A Wild Card
Ukraine remains the unpredictable element in these negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been clear: no talks with Putin unless Russian troops withdraw entirely. Giles explained, “There’s a mutual interest between Trump and Putin to do something, but Ukraine’s survival depends on rejecting any deal that permanently compromises its sovereignty.”
Zelenskyy has softened his rhetoric in recent months, acknowledging Ukraine’s precarious position. He’s proposed a “victory plan” to Trump, emphasizing that any negotiation must not give Putin the upper hand. Yet, as Giles warned, “If Ukraine loses U.S. support, its prospects become dire.”
The Dangers of Appeasement
Critics argue that a Trump-brokered deal could embolden Putin and destabilize Europe. A temporary ceasefire might allow Western nations to ease off their military and economic support for Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to future aggression. Yuliya Kazdobina, a former adviser to the Ukrainian government, cautioned that Putin’s ultimate goal remains the destruction of Ukrainian statehood.
“Any talk of a compromise settlement is dangerously delusional,” Kazdobina wrote for the Atlantic Council. “Until Putin recognizes Ukraine’s right to exist, any peace deals will be temporary.”
What Happens If Ukraine Rejects the Deal?
If Ukraine refuses a Trump-Putin proposal, Trump could leverage U.S. aid to pressure Kyiv. Giles pointed out that the U.S. holds significant sway over Ukraine as its most powerful ally. “Trump can use leverage far more effectively on Kyiv than on Putin,” he said, suggesting the possibility of freezing military aid.
Yet, even without U.S. backing, Ukraine has shown resilience. As Giles noted, “Resistance could continue for years, just as it did during World War II.” However, Ukraine’s survival hinges on continued support from Europe and other allies.
The Best Outcome for Ukraine
The ideal scenario for Ukraine would see Trump rejecting any deal that compromises its sovereignty, fully backing Kyiv, and lifting restrictions on U.S. weaponry. But given Trump’s history and rhetoric, this seems unlikely.
Instead, speculation suggests Trump might propose concessions, such as removing Ukraine’s NATO ambitions or ceding territory to Russia. While such compromises could temporarily halt the war, they would likely leave Ukraine vulnerable and embolden Putin’s aggression.
Conclusion
As Trump’s inauguration approaches, the world watches with bated breath. Will his peace plan bring stability or chaos? For Ukraine, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Any deal that sacrifices its sovereignty risks not only Ukraine’s future but the security of Europe as a whole. As Kazdobina aptly put it, “Appeasement is not a solution; it’s an invitation for further aggression.”
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